Jalandhar: Fourth wave will not come from an Omicron variant that undergoes an incremental change. It can come from a completely different variant that emerges on its own. The Delta didn't emerge from the Alpha variant; Omicron didn't emerge from Delta.
Dr Naresh Purohit , Advisor- National Communicable Disease Control Programme told UNI here on Wednesday that a week ago, COVID-19 infections had jumped by 90 per cent in India (crossing the 2,000-mark in a day). India has been recording an increase in daily COVID-19 cases for over a couple of weeks now, raising concerns about the fourth wave of infections.
He said that pandemics are not just biological and medical, but economic and political too. Pandemic control expert stated that it is unlikely that India sees a new COVID-19 “wave” comparable to Delta, because “the viruses that are causing the infections now are not fundamentally different from Omicron, which has already caused a lot of infections in the country.
“The BA.2 variant is 2-20 per cent more infectious than Omicron. Schools have reopened and children are not vaccinated. Most states have removed pandemic-related mandates. All of these factors have led to an increase in infections. In days ahead there is a probability to record sporadic increases in different places at different times, depending on local dynamics,” he pointed.
Dr Purohit averred that every major wave has been associated with a certain variant. He added that the original Alpha variant, the Delta, and then the Omicron variants caused a sharp increase. Omicron is also extremely transmissible. Besides, most people (who are eligible for vaccination) have a hybrid immunity at this point – either they are partially or fully vaccinated and/or have contracted the infection. So, for them, especially if they do not have co morbidities, the symptoms are likely to be similar to that of the common flu.
He emphasized that India must continue to track certain indicators of the pandemic in order to avoid health emergencies. “There is already a reservoir of immunity in the population. However, India should look out for anomalous increases in cases,” he said.
He urged the health authorities for public health surveillance testing, which the Centers for Disease Control define as “ongoing, systematic collection, analysis, and interpretation of health-related data essential to the planning, implementation, and evaluation of public health practice.”
He said the country should be doing random surveillance testing (5-10 people from random districts with influenza-like symptoms), syndromic surveillance (clusters of cases), and wastewater surveillance, which will be a “good indication of when cases might increase in the future. (UNI)
