How Bangladesh ex-PM Sheikh Hasina's stay in India presents a dilemma for New Delhi

Since Bangladesh's ex-PM Sheikh Hasina fled Dhaka by military helicopter and landed at an Indian air force base near New Delhi on August 5, there's been widespread speculation that she will seek asylum in another country.

Plans to seek asylum in Europe or the Middle East, however, haven't so far been successful, according to Indian media reports.

In Bangladesh, meanwhile, a new caretaker government is in place, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government in New Delhi is weighing its options carefully as to how to engage with the new interim administration in Dhaka.

'A delicate dilemma for India'

India shares a porous 4,100-kilometer-long (2,500-mile) border with Bangladesh.

New Delhi has long been concerned about human trafficking, infiltration and terrorist activities along the frontier, particularly as Bangladesh borders the Indian states of West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram, which are prone to violent insurgencies. 

India was able to rely on Hasina's administration to ensure these security risks were kept in check. Her ouster has presented New Delhi with a strategic challenge.

Another concern for India is the fate of religious minorities in Bangladesh, where Hindus make up about 8% of the nation's 170 million people. 

Experts say India wants to maintain cordial bilateral relations and doesn't want Hasina's presence in the country to stoke tensions.

Ajay Bisaria, a former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan, told DW that "Sheikh Hasina's presence poses a delicate dilemma for India."

"While India would wish to extend hospitality to its friends, even those ousted by coups, Hasina is a particularly hot potato. Her continued stay in India risks triggering extradition demands from Bangladesh's interim government for alleged humanitarian crimes," he said.

Bisaria pointed out that her presence could hinder India's efforts to build ties with the new interim administration in Dhaka.

"For her personal safety, and in order not to embarrass her hosts, Sheikh Hasina would herself prefer to be a temporary guest in India, before she gets more permanent refuge in the UK, or some other Western country," he underlined, adding India would not favor a "government in exile" on its territory, "which would strongly antagonize the new Bangladesh administration."

Forging ties with new government

In a recent interview, the transitional government's foreign affairs adviser, Md Touhid Hossain, said Hasina's stay in India would not impact bilateral ties.

Nevertheless, he pointed out that it's up to the Law Ministry to initiate efforts to bring her back to Bangladesh.

"What I have come to know is that she (Hasina) resigned and the resignation letter is with the president. This has been confirmed. If the law ministry tells us to write a letter to bring her back, I will do so," Hossain told Channel 24.

Jayadeva Ranade, security and intelligence expert and former member of India's National Security Advisory Board, said Hasina "will want to find safe sanctuary in a country where the possibility of extradition is low or non-existent."

But he was quick to point out that India had done "the right thing" by giving her temporary shelter.

"We should also not overestimate the anger against Sheikh Hasina — she and the Awami League (party) would also have a sizeable number of supporters," he told DW.

Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, a former high commissioner to Bangladesh, who has been following the events closely, told DW that it would be difficult to indicate a time frame for Hasina's stay in India, and it will depend on the political situation in Bangladesh.

"Last time when her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and other family members were assassinated in 1975, she had taken refuge in India and went back to her country in 1981," Chakravarty pointed out.

"The challenges are likely to be of a personal nature. I suppose she will want to go to another country of her choice but her party will want her back when elections are held in Bangladesh," he added.

Keeping options open

Under Hasina's 15-year rule, Dhaka and New Delhi shared strong diplomatic and trade relations.

Bangladesh is India's biggest trade partner in South Asia, with bilateral trade estimated at $15.9 billion (€14.55 billion) in the fiscal year 2022-23, according to Indian government data.

Both sides were also due to start talks for a free trade deal.

Sanjay Bhardwaj of Jawaharlal Nehru University's Centre for South Asian Studies pointed out that it is unviable for any government in Bangladesh to distance itself from India.

"Sheikh Hasina's stay in India is less political, and more a diplomatic and technical issue," Bhardwaj told DW.

"India's proximity to Bangladesh translates into a natural trade advantage. Shared land borders and well-established transportation links facilitate the movement of goods, often at lower costs compared to imports from more distant locations like China," he said.

"Bangladesh's garment manufacturing sector, a key driver of its economic growth, relies heavily on raw materials and intermediate goods from India," he added.

For now, India is keeping its options open and has not stated anything officially on how long Hasina will continue to stay.

"Where will she go? We will have to wait and watch and see how things play out, especially if India wants to engage with the new regime," Amarjit Singh Dulat, a former head of the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency, told DW.