Bengaluru: As India gears up for their final Test against New Zealand in Mumbai on November 1, the mood among fans and players alike is unusually sombre. The back-to-back losses to the Black Caps, first by eight wickets in Bengaluru and then by 113 runs in Pune, have put India’s path to the World Test Championship (WTC) final in serious jeopardy. It’s not just the defeats themselves but what they signify: a breakdown in the fortress-like reputation India has long held in home conditions.
This series loss marks the first time New Zealand has clinched a Test series on Indian soil, ending India’s 18-series unbeaten streak at home — a record that had stood unchallenged for 12 years. Under Rohit Sharma’s leadership, India entered the series as favourites, with expectations high that they would breeze through to the WTC final. Instead, fans witnessed a struggling Indian side, up against a well-prepared New Zealand team that adapted skillfully to Indian conditions.
While the surface at Bengaluru favoured seamers, Pune’s pitch was tailored for spinners, but India struggled in both scenarios. New Zealand’s well-rounded bowling attack, combined with steady batting performances, proved too much for the hosts.
Despite the two losses, India still sits atop the WTC points table. However, their points percentage (PCT) dropped sharply from 68.06 to 62.82, narrowing their lead over Australia, who have a 62.50 PCT. This slim 0.32% lead means that every match from here on becomes critical for India’s qualification to the WTC final.
India’s qualification scenario is now clear but challenging: to reach the final without relying on results from other teams, India must win four of their remaining six matches. With New Zealand leading 2-0 in the series, India needs a convincing victory in the upcoming Mumbai Test, followed by at least three wins in the upcoming five-Test Border-Gavaskar Trophy series against Australia. Failure to achieve this would make them dependent on favourable outcomes from matches involving other top contenders.
India’s path to the WTC final isn’t made any easier by the progress of other contenders. South Africa, currently fifth with a PCT of 47.62, is in a strong position to challenge India. They have five upcoming Tests, including one against Bangladesh in subcontinental conditions and two each against Sri Lanka and Pakistan at home. South Africa’s favourable schedule could allow them to accumulate points and gain ground on India.
Sri Lanka, who occupy third with a PCT of 55.56, will play matches against Afghanistan and England. A strong showing could see them solidify their position as serious challengers. Meanwhile, Pakistan, sitting at seventh with a PCT of 33.33, will look to build on their recent nine-wicket win over England in Rawalpindi, keeping them in the WTC race.
The Border-Gavaskar Trophy has always been a marquee contest in international cricket, but this year’s edition takes on added significance. India will face a formidable Australian side that has been on an upward trajectory. With Australia nipping at India’s heels on the WTC points table, every match in this series could shape the final standings and determine who reaches the WTC final.
The Indian team’s adaptability, resilience, and ability to handle pressure will be tested, and they must quickly find solutions to their recent struggles. Addressing vulnerabilities in both the batting and bowling departments, as well as finding the right combination for Australian conditions, will be crucial.
As India prepares for their next challenge, the stakes could not be higher. The dream of a WTC final appearance is still within reach, but only if they can steer the upcoming tests with resolve. Rohit Sharma and his men now face a defining moment in their journey. Whether they emerge from these setbacks as a stronger unit or falter under the weight of expectation remains to be seen.
The Mumbai Test against New Zealand on November 1 will be India’s last chance to secure a victory on home soil before heading abroad, and for many players, it may be a final opportunity to prove themselves. The race for the WTC final is intensifying, and every ball, every session, and every match counts as India fights to stay on course for the coveted title.